Fertility in Petén, Guatemala: the impact of the individual, the household and the context on fertility behavior

Abstract This research explores fertility correlates in the Petén, a high fertility region of Guatemala, during the 1998-99 time period. By taking into account land use and labor characteristics at the household and community levels in addition to individual level factors related to diffusion, gender equity, and socio-demographics the research aims to enhance and update the traditional application of the demand framework used to examine fertility. Data from the 1998/99 Demographic and Health Survey containing a unique environmental module was used in concert with 2002 Population and Agricultural census data. This analysis expands the fertility determinants dialogue by including land use variables rarely examined and directly correlated to individual fertility behavior. A multi-level model using a count variable (total children ever born) as the response where individuals are nested within their geographical location was compared to a negative binomial model as well as a traditional Poisson generalized linear model. The results of the analysis highlight the complex set of individual land use, environmental, and socio-demographic characteristics required to explain the variation in individual fertility behavior at a time when this high fertility population is potentially on the precipice of a long-awaited fertility decline.This research explores fertility correlates in the Petén, a high fertility region of Guatemala, during the 1998-99 time period. By taking into account land use and labor characteristics at the household and community levels in addition to individual level factors related to diffusion, gender equity, and socio-demographics the research aims to enhance and update the traditional application of the demand framework used to examine fertility. Data from the 1998/99 Demographic and Health Survey containing a unique environmental module was used in concert with 2002 Population and Agricultural census data. This analysis expands the fertility determinants dialogue by including land use variables rarely examined and directly correlated to individual fertility behavior. A multi-level model using a count variable (total children ever born) as the response where individuals are nested within their geographical location was compared to a negative binomial model as well as a traditional Poisson generalized linear model. The results of the analysis highlight the complex set of individual land use, environmental, and socio-demographic characteristics required to explain the variation in individual fertility behavior at a time when this high fertility population is potentially on the precipice of a long-awaited fertility decline.